Equity Commentary: As at December 31, 2023

Equity markets seem to be in the throes of maximum exuberance as 2023 draws to a close. Investors have embraced an immaculate soft landing (in the U.S. at least) where inflation has been tamed, the economy is slowing but remains in growth mode, unemployment rates are expected to stay muted at under four percent, the U.S. Federal Reserve (“Fed”) has pivoted policy just in time and is prepared to add significant support in March just when the economy needs it, the U.S. dollar has weakened, taking accident risk off the table (especially in emerging markets) and S&P 500 earnings have bottomed and will likely grow considerably in 2024.

 

Outlook and Opportunities

Our proprietary economic cycle model continues to ebb and flow, with incoming economic data, between a mild recessionary environment and a reacceleration in developed economies (namely, the U.S.).  Against this, our inflation cycle model points to an ongoing moderation of inflation. Regarding the economic cycle, we are inclined to let the evidence continue to bear out before making more decisive asset allocation / thematic calls with the intent of embracing risk or cyclicality.

We expect the ongoing sensitivity of markets to bond yields to moderate as growth data becomes more important than inflation data.  As it pertains to our equity processes, we believe evidence-based macro views lend to smoother transitions through economic cycle phases and market regimes.

 

1M (%) 3M (%) 6M (%) 1YR* (%) 3YR* (%) 5YR* (%) Since Inception* (%)
Picton Mahoney Fortified Equity Fund (Class F) 0.83 6.26 4.65 15.12 7.33 11.40 8.13
(Oct. 29, 2015)
Picton Mahoney Fortified Active Extension Alternative Fund (Class F) 3.21 5.80 3.98 10.99 9.35 14.73 11.24
(Sept. 27, 2018)
Picton Mahoney Fortified Market Neutral Alternative Fund (Class F) -0.55 -1.04 0.38 2.83 4.79 7.40 6.98
(Sept. 27, 2018)
Picton Mahoney Fortified Long Short Alternative Fund (Class F) 1.48 2.18 1.79 6.84 8.37 13.87
(July. 7, 2020)

 

(*) Annualized performance

Source: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

1Microsoft Earning Release FY24 Q1 https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/earnings/fy-2024-q1/press-release-webcast

Related Content

Equity Commentary: As at June 30, 2024

Equity Commentary: As at June 30, 2024

The market has produced strong year-to-date returns. There appears to be much comfort in the structural themes driving today’s markets because there is seemingly duration behind them. A sampling of...

This material has been published by Picton Mahoney Asset Management (“PMAM”) on January 19, 2024

It is provided as a general source of information, is subject to change without notification and should not be construed as investment advice. This material should not be relied upon for any investment decision and is not a recommendation, solicitation or offering of any security in any jurisdiction. The information contained in this material has been obtained from sources believed reliable, however, the accuracy and/or completeness of the information is not guaranteed by PMAM, nor does PMAM assume any responsibility or liability whatsoever. All investments involve risk and may lose value. This information is not intended to provide financial, investment, tax, legal or accounting advice specific to any person, and should not be relied upon in that regard. Tax, investment and all other decisions should be made, as appropriate, only with guidance from a qualified professional.

This material may contain “forward-looking information” that is not purely historical in nature. These forward-looking statements are based upon the reasonable beliefs of PMAM as of the date they are made. PMAM assumes no duty, and does not undertake, to update any forward-looking statement. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, are subject to numerous assumptions and involve inherent risks and uncertainties about general economic factors which change over time. There is no guarantee that any forward-looking statements will come to pass. We caution you not to place undue reliance on these statements, as a number of important factors could cause actual events or results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statement made.

Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Alternative mutual funds can only be purchased through a registered dealer and are available only in those jurisdictions where they may be lawfully offered for sale.

There is no guarantee that a hedging strategy will be effective or achieve its intended effect. The use of derivatives or short selling carries several risks which may restrict a strategy in realizing its profits, limiting its losses, or, which cause a strategy to realize or magnify losses. There may additional costs and expenses associated with the use of derivatives and short selling in a hedging strategy.

This material is confidential and is intended for use by accredited investors or permitted clients in Canada only. Any review, re-transmission, dissemination or other use of this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited.

© 2024 Picton Mahoney Asset Management. All rights reserved.