Key Takeaways
01/
Evolving U.S. Policy Shifts Shape M&A Landscape
Merger arbitrage spreads tightened as leadership changes at the FTC and DOJ signaled a more pragmatic and constructive antitrust stance, creating a more conducive environment for deal-making. However, uncertainty around the Trump administration’s tariff policies continues to weigh on corporate decision-making, with many potential transactions likely on hold until there’s greater clarity on global trade.
02/
SPAC Market Shows Signs of Life
SPAC activity remained elevated, with improving market reactions to new deal announcements and warrant values, marking a potential turning point from the 2022–2023 hangover period.
03/
All Strategies Delivered Positive Returns
Strong merger arbitrage performance, solid SPAC contributions, and opportunistic convertible arbitrage led to positive returns across both funds in Q1 2025.
Manager Perspective & Outlook
Merger arbitrage spreads generally tightened in the quarter as the market adjusted to the positive developments in U.S. antitrust enforcement (i.e. the replacement of Lina Khan at the Federal Trade Commission and Jonathan Kanter at the Department of Justice (DOJ) Antitrust Division). While the Trump administration is continuing the antitrust battles against big tech, the messaging from the new leadership on M&A is that where they don’t see a deal violating antitrust laws, they want to get “out of the way.” The new DOJ antitrust leader has also indicated they are open to robust consent decrees for merger remedies, which is a return to past practice after the prior head had put a stop to that practice.
While the new regulatory environment is more conducive to M&A activity, the uncertainty around the Trump administration’s position on tariffs is not helpful. We suspect there are many deals waiting in the wings until the global trade picture is resolved. Nevertheless, there were some large deals announced, notably Walgreens Boots Alliance Inc by Sycamore Partners ($40B enterprise value) and Mr. Cooper Group Inc by Rocket Companies Inc ($20B). Several large deals closed in the quarter, including Summit Materials Inc by Quickrete Holdings Inc and Intra-Cellular Therapies Inc by Johnson & Johnson (closed shortly after quarter end).
Special Purpose Acquisition Company (SPAC) activity remains elevated relative to the 2022-2023 hangover period. There were 19 new SPAC initial public offerings in the quarter and 13 business combination announcements. Encouragingly, some newly announced SPAC transactions were met with positive market reactions — a rare occurrence in recent years — with common shares trading above trust value and warrant values improving. As markets became more volatile late in the quarter, the underlying Treasury collateral in SPACs also served as a source of stability in the portfolio.
Portfolio Positioning
We maintained a diversified book of merger arbitrage positions, favoring transactions where we believe the regulatory path is straightforward and where spreads reflect attractive compensation for idiosyncratic deal risk. Importantly, we saw wider spreads during periods of macro volatility, creating opportunities to deploy capital into deals with unchanged fundamental risk profiles but higher expected returns.
Performance Highlights
The Picton Mahoney Fortified Arbitrage Alternative Fund Class F returned 1.00%, and the Picton Mahoney Fortified Arbitrage Plus Alternative Fund Class F returned 1.68% in Q1 2025, with all three sub-strategies contributing positively to performance.
Merger arbitrage was a notable driver of returns, benefiting from the successful completion of several large deals during the quarter. Additionally, market volatility in early April led to more attractive deal entry points, with spreads widening without a corresponding rise in deal break risk.
Our SPAC allocation also contributed positively, though to a lesser extent than merger arbitrage. A few announced deals traded at premiums to trust value, helping boost returns. In parallel, warrant values saw a modest recovery, and the Treasury-backed trust structures provided a cushion during market turbulence.
Finally, our small position in high-delta (deep in-the-money) convertible bond arbitrage added value as the market sell-off created opportunities for premium expansion. These synthetic puts continue to serve as a valuable component of the strategy, offering attractive downside protection during periods of market stress.
1M (%) | 3M (%) | 6M (%) | 1YR (%) | 3YR (%)* | 5YR (%)* | Since Inception* (Jan 3, 2019) | |
Picton Mahoney Fortified Arbitrage Alternative Fund (Class F) | 0.38 | 1.00 | 1.74 | 3.49 | 3.07 | 6.34 | 5.17 |
Picton Mahoney Fortified Arbitrage Plus Alternative Fund (Class F) | 0.64 | 1.68 | 2.46 | 4.65 | 3.98 | 11.33 | 8.94 |
(*) refers to average annualized performance
1 Picton Mahoney Fortified Arbitrage Alternative Fund and Picton Mahoney Arbitrage Fund.
This material has been published by Picton Mahoney Asset Management (“PMAM”) as at April 10, 2025. It is provided as a general source of information, is subject to change without notification and should not be construed as investment advice. This material should not be relied upon for any investment decision and is not a recommendation, solicitation or offering of any security in any jurisdiction.
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees, performance fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. The indicated rates of return are the historical annual compounded total returns including changes in unit value and reinvestment of all distributions and do not take into account sales, redemption, distribution or optional charges or income taxes payable by any unitholder that would have reduced returns. Mutual funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Alternative mutual funds can only be purchased through a registered dealer and are available only in those jurisdictions where they may be lawfully offered for sale.
There is no guarantee that a hedging strategy will be effective or achieve its intended effect. The use of derivatives or short selling carries several risks which may restrict a strategy in realizing its profits, limiting its losses, or, which cause a strategy to realize or magnify losses. There may be additional costs and expenses associated with the use of derivatives and short selling in a hedging strategy.
This material is confidential and is intended for use by accredited investors or permitted clients in Canada only. Any review, re-transmission, dissemination or other use of this information by persons or entities other than the intended recipient is prohibited.
© 2025 Picton Mahoney Asset Management. All rights reserved