Played Out. Priced In. Now What? A Hedged Income Playbook

Published: November 13, 2024
Author: Picton Mahoney Asset Management

Many fixed income investments have had their run. The market has already priced in significant rate cuts. The question is, now what? We believe a rebalance makes sense. In this article we lay out a “Played out. Priced in” problem and make an argument for alternative strategies as part of the solution.

Cash, GICs and discounted bonds have Played Out

In recent years, investors taking advantage of attractive yields, stability and capital gains have put their trust in cash-like instruments such as cash, Guaranteed Investment Certificates (GICs), and short-duration single-name bonds. As rates peaked, these products thrived, and afforded attractive returns with minimal risk.

However, the tide is turning. As central banks shift their policies and lower rates, the yield potential of these instruments has declined from recent highs. GIC rates for example, once above 5%, are trending down at a steep pace and will likely tumble below 3% in 2025.

1 year GIC rates proxy graph

Once favoured by investors for their attractive yields and tax-efficient gains, short duration bonds are now trading back near par (Figure 2). The opportunity set in discount bonds has mostly disappeared.

5 year corp bond index chart

Rate cuts have been Priced In

As of September 24, 2024, the market has priced in 175 bps of rate cuts over the next 12 months (Figure 3). This is equivalent to 7 rate cuts, which makes a total of 250 bps of easing when adding the 75 bps of cuts the Bank of Canada has made already this year. Market expectations reflect a cooling economy and falling inflation.

Some investors, hoping to benefit from future rate cuts, are extending the duration of their fixed income portfolios with longer-dated bonds. However, the market has already priced in that number of cuts, so unless the economy experiences a severe downturn, we believe the potential gains from taking on additional duration risk is limited. In fact, even if these rate cuts materialize, our analysis suggests the 10-year government bond yield may actually rise from here, as the yield curve normalizes and gets back to a positive slope.

BPS rate cuts chat

While the rate market points to a slowdown, the credit market is pricing in a soft landing scenario, with spreads continuing to trade near their historical lows in both investment grade and high yield. This makes allocations to traditional long-only credit challenging here given sensitivity to credit spreads.

So the question is, Now What?

As cash, GICs and Discounted Bonds lose their luster and further rate cuts loom, where should investors turn to find sustainable income, attractive return potential and stability? Here, we outline our thoughts and considerations alongside the most common fixed income segments for potential allocations.

fixed income segment allocation chart

The landscape for income investors has changed. It’s time to move beyond the limitations of cash and embrace solutions that are prepared for what comes next.

 

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Played Out. Priced In. Now What? An Alpha Approach

Played Out. Priced In. Now What? An Alpha Approach

Many investments have had their run. The market has already priced in significant rate cuts. The question is, now what? We believe a rebalance makes sense. In this article, we lay out a “Played out....

This material has been published by Picton Mahoney Asset Management (“PMAM”) on November 13, 2024

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