Home Sweet Home: 3 Reasons to Go Long Canada, Short U.S. Credit (Beyond Tariffs)

Home is where the heart is. And for 2025, home—in this case we’re talking about Canada—may be the place to be when it comes to credit exposure. We see an especially compelling case to be long Canadian credit/short U.S. credit. For advisors, we think this might be one area in 2025 that can lead to meaningful outperformance for clients.

Here’s why:

1. The Canadian Credit Market Now Offers Greater Opportunities

Canada’s credit market has evolved in recent years with the arrival of new, innovative structures. Take Limited Recourse Capital Notes (LRCNs) from banks and insurance companies, for example. First issued in 2020, issuance for these securities grew to just shy of CA$20 billion two years later and they continue to gain traction among investors. The domestic credit market has also gained greater depth and diversity as issuers who previously relied on bank lending have begun issuing bonds for the first time.

 

2. Compared to the U.S. Market, Canada Exhibits Higher Credit Quality and Lower Volatility

Higher risk-adjusted returns are the goal—and Canada’s credit market may deliver quite the assist in 2025. Indeed, Canadian credit currently seems well-positioned vs. the U.S. With both markets currently trading at similar credit spreads, we believe this creates an opportunity to be long Canadian credit and short U.S. credit. Additionally, foreign exchange hedging costs have risen significantly in recent months, making it less attractive for Canadian investors to hold U.S. dollar-denominated assets.

 

Figure 1: It’s All Relative: Canadian Credit is Currently More Attractive Than the U.S.
Fixed income
Source: Bloomberg L.P. Canada HY is represented by the ICE BofA Canada High Yield Index, US HY is represented by the ICE BofA US High Yield Index.

 

3. The Macro Outlook Supports Long Canada/Short U.S. Credit 

Our 2025 macroeconomic outlook adds fuel to the case for being long Canadian credit/short U.S. credit. In a nutshell, we anticipate continued central bank policy divergence and believe the Bank of Canada has more scope to ease policy vs. the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Our Long Short Credit strategy can serve as a fixed income diversifier or traditional bond replacement by maintaining low correlation to major markets and mitigating rate, credit and currency risks with hedging tools.

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This material has been published by Picton Mahoney Asset Management (“PMAM”) on February 24, 2025

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