During the third quarter of 2024, interest rates fell sharply as investors quickly priced in an aggressive start to the U.S Federal Reserve (Fed) easing cycle. Against this backdrop, risk assets performed well despite some intra-quarter volatility. After the Fed’s 50 basis points cut in mid-September however, investors took profits and interest rates quickly rebounded.
Credit spreads remain at the bottom of their recent ranges, driven partly by continued inflows to the asset class and yields that are sufficiently attractive to larger pension plans and annuities. Defaults remain low, and issuers continue to have easy access to capital, as evidenced by the surge in deals over this past quarter.
As we close out September, the prominent themes are geopolitical uncertainty and inflation. In addition to split polls heading into the U.S. presidential election, there are growing concerns about fiscal overspending regardless of the outcome. Additionally, the conflict between Israel and Iran, and its proxies, continues to escalate, and oil prices have been volatile. These forces, combined with ongoing labour strikes and the impulse of the Fed cut itself, have brought inflation concerns back into focus. Given the amount of rate cuts already priced in, and our view that inflation risks remain, we see challenging risk/reward in long duration bonds.
Given the current landscape of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, inflation and rate pressures, and credit spreads on the expensive side, we believe investors are best served by an active investment strategy that can cushion against market volatility and higher interest rates, that invests in higher yielding and capital gain opportunities, augmented by event-driven strategies and special situations to drive uncorrelated alpha. Our team of seasoned professionals continues to focus on high conviction investments, and an attentiveness to management subtleties, bond covenants and trading dynamics.
1M (%) | 3M (%) | 6M (%) | 1YR* (%) | 3YR* (%) | 5YR* (%) | Since Inception* (%) | |
Picton Mahoney Fortified Income Fund (Class F) | 0.98 | 3.04 | 5.07 | 10.52 | 2.67 | 3.92 | 5.26 (Oct. 29, 2015) |
Picton Mahoney Fortified Income Alternative Fund (Class F) | 0.84 | 2.23 | 4.13 | 9.21 | 2.96 | 4.62 | 4.81 (July 10, 2019) |
Picton Mahoney Fortified Special Situations Alternative Fund (Class F) | 1.01 | 2.62 | 4.60 | 10.03 | 4.09 | – | 3.71 (July 13, 2021) |
(*) refers to average annualized performance.
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